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Service Description: In this part of the website we present climate change projections for the area of Poland extended by the parts of the Vistula and Odra basins belonging to the neighbouring countries. Three climate variables included are: daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation. The variables are aggregated at annual and seasonal levels for the „near future” (2021-2050) and the „far future” (2071-2100) relative to the baseline period of 1971-2000. Projections driven by two emission scenarios adopted in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, i.e. Representative Concetration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are included. Projections derived by two methods are shown separately - 1) dynamical downscaling based on the ensemble of nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by four General Circulation Models (GCMs). This is a gridded and bias-corrected product; (2) empirical-statistical downscaling based on the ensemble of over 100 GCMs. These projections are availale for 57 climate stations in Poland. The uncertainty of climate models is expressed through presenting three types of ensemble statistics for each variable: ensemble median („median change”), 5th percentile („low change”) and 95th percentile („high change”).
Map Name: Tmax
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Spatial Reference:
102100
(3857)
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Spatial Reference: 102100
(3857)
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Spatial Reference: 102100
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Comments: In this part of the website we present climate change projections for the area of Poland extended by the parts of the Vistula and Odra basins belonging to the neighbouring countries. Three climate variables included are: daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation. The variables are aggregated at annual and seasonal levels for the „near future” (2021-2050) and the „far future” (2071-2100) relative to the baseline period of 1971-2000. Projections driven by two emission scenarios adopted in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, i.e. Representative Concetration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are included. Projections derived by two methods are shown separately - 1) dynamical downscaling based on the ensemble of nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by four General Circulation Models (GCMs). This is a gridded and bias-corrected product; (2) empirical-statistical downscaling based on the ensemble of over 100 GCMs. These projections are availale for 57 climate stations in Poland. The uncertainty of climate models is expressed through presenting three types of ensemble statistics for each variable: ensemble median („median change”), 5th percentile („low change”) and 95th percentile („high change”).
Subject: Climate Models (RCMs) driven by four General Circulation Models (GCMs).
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Keywords: Projections_Tmax
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